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beek

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END-WET 2016 chat
« on: May 03, 2016, 12:45:55 PM »
I've heard rumors of some interesting things on the horizon for some of this year's swimmers. Care to share?

We got approval from the city council last night to swim in the river again this year. :D

EDIT: Facebook event page is here, or tag us on Twitter (@endracing) or Instagram (@endracing_gf) and use hashtag #ENDWET to chat.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2016, 11:09:43 AM by beek »

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beek

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Re: END-WET 2016 chat
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2016, 01:29:38 PM »
Archived discharge from http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=05082500 in downtown Grand Forks.

2016 (June 18)

Discharge 3710 cfs, stage 17.29 ft.

2015


2014 (flood year)


2013 (July 13)


2012 (July 21)
« Last Edit: June 20, 2016, 05:27:59 PM by beek »

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beek

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Re: END-WET 2016 chat
« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2016, 02:53:11 PM »
Another few weeks of rain and we may be back in business!

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beek

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Re: END-WET 2016 chat
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2016, 11:05:13 AM »
2016-06-09 12.33.40 by Matt, on Flickr

Took a little video this morning, a few miles downstream from the finish line. We're off the most recent crest now and looking at about 7000 cfs/~18.5 ft and falling. More rain in the forecast this week but I don't know how much...

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beek

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Re: END-WET 2016 chat
« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2016, 08:26:04 AM »
I did try to look at the relationship between discharge and finish times, but we only have two years of data for the 36-mile race.

The attached is a plot of finish times (hours) as a function of discharge (cubic feet per second). I added a basic linear regression line, which goes through the mean finish times. Not only do people get slower as discharge drops, but the range of finish times increases. I haven't had time to predict any sort of range for the flows we're seeing now, but you can eyeball it and see that we may be in for an interesting year.

Using the first two years of finish times might be informative if I translate the data into average mph rather than finish time, but I have an inkling that the 27-mile swimmers were going a little faster on average than 26-milers--but I could be wrong about that.

I find it interesting how close some of the times are. Having paddled, I know that people often jockey back and forth for position along the course, but I wonder what sort of times we would see if these were all solo efforts.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 08:30:35 AM by beek »

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beek

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Re: END-WET 2016 chat
« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2016, 10:22:49 AM »
I finally tracked down the flow/stage forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/river.php?wfo=fgf&wfoid=18766&riverid=204483&pt%5B%5D=147100&pt%5B%5D=142526&allpoints=143611%2C147128%2C146783%2C144057%2C144841%2C147100%2C142526%2C144756%2C141413%2C143824%2C152614&data%5B%5D=all

This is a weekly discharge forecaset, but they don't seem to calculate new ones in real-time:
(should update automatically)

Other fun things I found:
- http://www.rrbdin.org/tools
- http://gis.rrbdin.org/ffviewer/
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 10:25:33 AM by beek »

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beek

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Re: END-WET 2016 chat
« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2016, 04:32:34 PM »
Looks like measurable rain until the end of the week.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

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beek

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Re: END-WET 2016 chat
« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2016, 11:51:50 AM »
Now I'm just posting things as I come across them...here's some training advice for one of the 2014 racers: https://www.reddit.com/r/Swimming/comments/1u3ffk/help_creating_a_year_long_swim_plan/

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beek

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Re: END-WET 2016 chat
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2016, 04:09:51 PM »
To finish up with data for the 2016, here are all the years of finish times together, converted to average swim speed, as a function of discharge as measured at Grand Forks.

Dan was correct in telling me that in 2012, the flow was much less (the race was in July), but the course was only 27 miles that year, so everyone had time to finish.

« Last Edit: June 21, 2016, 04:11:54 PM by beek »